A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
